Forecasting the Monthly Retail Prices of Agri-Food Condiments in the Philippines Using Autoregressive Moving Average

Abstract

In this study, the aim was to identify the most suitable statistical models for forecasting the prices of Agricultural Condiments in the Philippines, which include native garlic, imported garlic, red creole onion, white onion, native onion, and ginger. An analysis of price data from 2018 to 2022 revealed no discernible upward or downward trend, indicating limited predictive value for future prices. Subsequently, employing the ARMA technique, it was determined that ARMA (11), ARMA (1,2), ARMA (1,1), ARMA (1,1), ARMA (1,24), and ARMA (1,1) are the best-fit models for forecasting prices of native garlic, imported garlic, red creole onion, white onion, native onion, and ginger, respectively, for the upcoming three years (2023-2025) in the Philippines.